Defeat to Fermanagh this weekend would be disastrous for Cork's hopes of avoiding drop

Source: Irish Independent

Cavan are a fine side. They've got some very fine footballers, and a manager who seems to be getting a proper tune out of them in the person of Raymond Galligan.

There's really no shame in losing to them by a point, even on home soil. Losing to them by a point when you possibly should have won, though, that's maybe a slightly different story.

On its face it's hardly the worst defeat a Cork side has ever suffered - and there's been some doozies in the last decade or so - but coming off the back of two defeats in the opening two rounds of the competition it feels significant.

The Rebels are rooted to the bottom of the table. If they're not panicking, they really should be. There's been a lot of chat in the last few days about the potential for Cork falling into the Tailteann Cup come championship, but that really does feel the least of their worries.

After this latest defeat the Rebels need to avoid the drop and do so at all costs. They've got four games to do so, and as things stand you'd have them pencilled in as likely winners for only maybe one of those.

Certainly this weekend's game against Fermanagh in Ederney is no more than a fifty/fifty proposition for the Rebels. The bookmakers have the Rebels installed as marginal favourites, but you couldn't have confidence in them, could you? Really? No you couldn't.

After that then they're at home to Kildare - a county also in crisis, more acutely than Cork you'd have to say - a game they could win. Meath away looks tricky. Armagh at home last day out probably only looks winnable if the Orchard county are already qualified for the final.

In other words, it's all looking very precarious indeed for the Rebels. They could rally and do what needs to be done and avoid the drop, as we keep saying there's enough talent there for that, but at the same time it's equally likely they fail to get out of this bind.

For a team that at the start of the campaign seemed to have genuine hopes of challenging for promotion to left at the midway point of the campaign with little more than a fifty/fifty chance of avoiding the drop is some fall from grace.

Before the campaign got underway you probably would have fancied the Rebels to get the job done in this game, maybe even with a little to spare, on the road to Fermanagh. Now, though, it looks a fairly daunting proposition.

Heading next weekend in Ederney - a very nice club ground, but not a traditional county venue - is going to a really very tricky assignment for John Cleary's men.

Fermanagh will be out to make life as uncomfortable as possible for their guests and, after claiming three points so far in their campaign, won't be feeling too bad about themselves at all.

True Fermanagh are coming into this game off the back of a substantial enough trimming at the hands of Donegal. The Tír Chonnail men, though, have the look of a side on the march and in Letterkenny were always likely to be a difficult assignment for Kieran Donnelly's charges.

Even with that Fermanagh have a good draw on the road to Meath, and a win at home against Kildare, to give them confidence ahead of this contest with a Cork side whose heads, Cleary admitted on the weekend, were 'down' after Cavan's last minute winner.

At the same time there is the fact that Cork weren't terrible in either Ardee or Páirc Uí Chaoimh in their last two games. In games of fine margins they came out the wrong side of the result.

If things start finally to click for Cork there is the guts of a good side there. The returns of both Seán Powter and Steven Sherlock off the bench on the weekend provides a really timely boost for Cleary and his management team.

As we say, though, Fermanagh won't fear them. Cork in Ederney is not Donegal in Letterkenny and, whatever fear factor the Rebels might have carried, is probably undermined by their run of defeats.

It's not the case either we think that Cork, because of their desperation for points, will have greater motivation than Donnelly's men. They'll know that their best chance of avoiding the drop themselves is to put distance between themselves at Cork.

The Ernesiders' three final games are Armagh at home, followed by Louth and Cavan away. Nothing easy in any of those. No their best bet to stay in the division is to beat Cork, get to five points and have a head-to-head advantage over the Rebels.

For both counties this is a huge, huge game of ball, no question about it. If Cork lose it, chances are they're gone. If Fermanagh win it, chances are they're safe, and something tells us that Fermanagh are the safer bet here.

They've got some quality players - Ross Bogue in goals is making a real name for himself, Ché Cullen, Declan McCusker and Josh Largo Ellis are decent in defence, while the likes of Ultan Kelm and Seán Cassidy are quality forwards - but having said that there's got to be some sort of a response from Cork, doesn't there?

The laws of probability alone suggest that they're due a result sooner rather than later and, as we've said, they've not been that bad in either of their last two games.

Against our better judgement, then, we're doing to give them the nod here. We've wrongly tipped Cork to win all of their opening three fixtures, so what the hell do we know? In other words folks if you're a betting man or woman, do not take this to the bank, do not put your mortgage on it.

This is Cork football we're talking about after all.