Oil nudges higher on hopes of summer fuel demand

Source: The Star

LONDON: Oil prices edged up on Monday, buoyed by hopes of rising fuel demand this summer, though gains were capped by a strengthening of the dollar on receding expectations of imminent cuts to U.S. interest rates.

Goldman Sachs analysts expect Brent to rise to $86 a barrel in third quarter, saying in a report that solid summer transport demand will push the oil market into a third-quarter deficit of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd).

Brent crude futures gained 28 cents, or 0.4%, to $79.90 a barrel by 0815 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 36 cents, or 0.5%, at $75.89.

"We believe current market positioning is overly pessimistic, considering that we expect larger oil inventory declines over the next few weeks," UBS analysts said in a report.

Oil last week posted a third straight weekly loss on concerns that a plan to unwind some production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, from October will add to rising supply.

Despite the OPEC+ cuts, oil inventories have risen. U.S. crude stocks rose in the latest week, as did gasoline stocks. Energy consultancy FGE also expects oil to rally, with prices reaching the mid-$80s into the third quarter.

"We continue to expect the market to firm up," FGE said. "But it will likely need a convincing signal of tightening from preliminary inventory data."

A strong dollar weighed on the market, with the currency rallying after Friday's U.S. jobs data prompted investors to trim expectations for interest rates.

The euro, meanwhile, fell after French President Emmanuel Macron called a snap parliamentary election.

A stronger U.S. currency makes dollar-denominated commodities such as oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. (Reporting by Alex Lawler Additional reporting by Florence Tan Editing by David Goodman)